RM Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, and Time: NFL Week 14 ‘Sunday Night Football’ Preview from a Trusted Model
Two AFC teams fighting for playoff positioning collide on Sunday Night Football as the Houston Texans head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Entering Week 14, Kansas City sits at 6–6 and holds the No. 10 seed in the AFC after dropping three of its past four games, including a 31–28 Thanksgiving loss to Dallas. Houston, meanwhile, has climbed to 7–5 and the No. 8 seed after stringing together four consecutive wins, most recently a 20–16 victory over the Colts.
This matchup is also notable as it marks Kansas City’s first home game since Missouri officially launched legal sports betting on Dec. 1, opening the door to a variety of new sportsbook promotions for state residents.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has dominated the recent series, winning the last five meetings, including a postseason matchup in January 2025. According to the latest SportsLine consensus, the Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points, with a total of 41.5. Before locking in any bets, bettors are encouraged to review the projections from the SportsLine Forecast Model.
Missouri bettors can now access offers such as the DraftKings Missouri promo, which provides $300 in bonus bets following an initial $5 wager.
The SportsLine Projection Model runs 10,000 simulations for every NFL game and has generated more than $7,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated selections since debuting. The model enters Week 14 on a 49–33 run in top plays since the 2024 season, delivering strong results for those following its picks across various sportsbooks.
Now the model has analyzed Texans vs. Chiefs. You can view all model-backed selections at SportsLine. Below are the key betting lines and trends:
Spread
Chiefs -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total
41.5 points
Money Line
Chiefs -201, Texans +167
Picks
Available at SportsLine
Streaming
Fubo (free trial available)
Why Houston Can Cover
The Texans enter this game with significant momentum, having won four straight, while the Chiefs have dropped three of their last four and failed to cover the spread in all four contests. Houston’s winning streak includes victories over three current AFC playoff teams—Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis.
The Texans’ defense is arguably the strongest unit in this matchup, and perhaps in the league. Houston leads the NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed and is the only team with more interceptions than passing touchdowns surrendered. The Texans also rank among the league leaders in sacks (34) and now face a Kansas City offensive line that has allowed at least three sacks in five consecutive games.
Why Kansas City Can Cover
Despite their recent struggles, the Chiefs have historically controlled this series, winning five straight against Houston. All four of their recent home wins in the matchup came by at least eight points.
Kansas City brings balance on both sides of the ball this season, ranking inside the league’s top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense—a contrast to Houston’s No. 21-ranked scoring offense. The Chiefs also protect the ball well, recording the second-fewest turnovers in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes remains in elite form, sitting second in the league in QBR, third in passing yardage, and fifth in touchdown passes. His past performances against Houston are remarkable: in six career games versus the Texans, he has posted a 15-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Missouri bettors can also take advantage of the FanDuel Missouri promotion offering $300 in bonus wagers after placing a $5 bet.
How to Bet Texans vs. Chiefs
According to the SportsLine model, this matchup trends Under, projecting 41 total points. The simulations also show one side of the spread cashing in well over half of the model’s projections. You can view the model’s official recommendation exclusively on SportsLine.
