RM Patrick Mahomes Can Vanquish a “Three-Headed Dragon” in Chiefs–Colts Week 12 AFC Clash
The Indianapolis Colts (8–2) travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (5–5) in a matchup carrying major AFC playoff implications. A loss would sink Kansas City’s postseason odds from 52% to roughly 35%, while a victory would boost them to about 63%.
If the Chiefs were to miss the playoffs, it would mark the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career. Kansas City hasn’t failed to reach the postseason since 2014, Andy Reid’s second year with the franchise. This game isn’t just important for standings—it also gives Mahomes a chance to conquer what’s being described as a three-headed dragon. The playoff stakes are the first head, while the other two stem from past frustrations Mahomes has endured.
The Colts Have Been a Persistent Obstacle for Mahomes
A win in Week 12 would mean Mahomes has defeated 31 of the NFL’s 32 teams—the lone remaining team would be his own, which he’d only face if he were ever traded. Since becoming the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, Mahomes is 0–2 against Indianapolis in regular-season play, falling to Jacoby Brissett in 2019 and Matt Ryan in 2022. His one success came in the 2019 postseason against Andrew Luck.
Despite that playoff win, the Colts have generally had Mahomes’ number in recent regular-season meetings, and reversing that trend won’t be simple.
Lou Anarumo: The Greater Thorn in Mahomes’ Side
The second “head” of the dragon is Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. He’s one of only two coordinators who have kept Mahomes from reaching the Super Bowl in an AFC Championship Game. During his six seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, Anarumo built a reputation for crafting defensive game plans specifically designed to disrupt Mahomes—late-rotating coverages, creative spy looks, unpredictable blitz packages, and constant adjustments.
Mahomes praised Anarumo this week, noting that the coach’s adaptability makes him particularly tough:
“He tailors his scheme to his personnel… he’s not stuck in his ways.”
Mahomes vs. Lou Anarumo: The Matchup History
- Week 17, 2021: Bengals 34–31
- 2021 AFC Championship: Bengals 27–24
- Week 13, 2022: Bengals 27–24
- 2022 AFC Championship: Chiefs 23–20
- Week 17, 2023: Chiefs 25–17
- Week 2, 2024: Chiefs 26–25
As noted by A to Z Sports’ Destin Adams, Mahomes has topped 300 passing yards only once in six meetings with Anarumo. High blitz frequency and forcing checkdowns have been key to Anarumo’s success. This aligns with the Colts’ revamped secondary—especially after adding Sauce Gardner—allowing them to blitz more aggressively and shrink throwing windows.
Mahomes acknowledged that facing Anarumo requires patience:
“He’s going to keep throwing different things at you… sometimes the right play is just taking five or six yards and staying in rhythm.”
A win would give Mahomes a 4–3 advantage in their head-to-head record and serve as a confidence boost against a coordinator who has historically challenged him.
Where Is the Colts’ Defense Most Vulnerable?
Even with Anarumo’s track record, his unit hasn’t been flawless. They’ve allowed 20+ points in seven of their ten games this season. So where can Mahomes strike?
Our Colts analyst, Destin Adams, points to two areas:
- Potential Miscommunication in the Secondary
The addition of Sauce Gardner upgrades the defensive backfield but can disrupt chemistry. A quarterback like Mahomes thrives on exploiting even minor breakdowns. - Weakness in Run Defense
Indianapolis struggled on the ground even before DeForest Buckner’s Week 10 injury. Kansas City’s run game has been inconsistent, but avoiding it entirely would be a mistake—especially if Charvarius Ward returns and the secondary is at full strength.
If the Chiefs stay committed to the run and can force the Colts into coverage breakdowns, their chances improve significantly. But it will require a complete performance from Kansas City’s offense—something they’ve lacked in disappointing Week 9 and Week 11 losses.
